Google’s Prediction for Online Ads

Apologies for the uncharacteristically clunky pre-roll advertisement in front of this presentation made at the IAB Mixx conference in NY today. Stats follow:

Google predicts by 2015:

  • 75 % of ads on the web will be “social” in nature—able to be commented on, shared, discussed, subscribed to and recommended—across dozens of formats, sites and social communities
  • 50% of ad campaigns will include video ads bought on a cost-per-view basis up from very little today
  • 50% of these ads will be bought using this real-time bidding technology
  • Mobile is going be the number one screen through which users engage with advertisers’ digital brands
  • Today, many will argue that the “click” is the most important way that advertisers measure their display ad campaigns, but it’s not always the best measure—especially if an ad campaign is designed to boost things like brand awareness or recall. With new measurement technologies emerging, in five years, there will be five metrics that advertisers commonly regard as more important than the click. According to Niel Mohan, these metrics may include
    • view throughs
    • conversations
    • web search results
    • sentiment analysis
    • foot traffic
    • (note–hey Niel, what about the often used/undefined metric of “engagement”  like how mobile will be valued by 2015–or will engagement break down to another 3-5 component metrics?)
  • Rich media formats will grow from today’s 6%- 50% by 2015 for brand-building ad campaigns
  • Display advertising is going to grow to a $50 billion industry in five years

Seems doable. Thoughts?

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3 responses to “Google’s Prediction for Online Ads

  1. Pingback: Google's Prediction for Online Ads | SoV-Share of Voice | Online Share - Online share brings you the latest and hottest posts from all over the web

  2. Mark – One thing that puzzles me is Google’s continual focus on short-term metrics. I see the element of time missing here. What are the long-term changes on base behaviors? Does long-term sentiment change as a result of ads? These metrics are all fine for the click-thru world, but is Google essentially saying that these mediums cannot build base brand equity?

  3. Good questions, Rob. You know classic brand tracking looks at brand favorability measures over time, and when we see some larger movements in any direction we know it will relate to the longer-term health of sales and performance versus the competition. I think long-term brand trackers may eventually be displaced by some combination of other measures trackable within SM-connected ad analytics, and believe it or not, click-through may actually be one of those measures. Behavior–searches, clicks, views, sentiment, sharing, etc.–is a powerful indication of intent and consideration.

    When we were marketing filmed entertainment properties, click-through rates were one way to gauge the health of a franchise. For instance, “The Matrix” would earn a 2% CTR when industry average was 1/2% on certain ad formats. It over-delivered on clicks because it had an avid base & was naturally engaging. Meanwhile, brands that weren’t naturally attractive or had low awareness/trust payed a tax by having to buy more impressions to deliver the same net performance.

    So, short-term I’d hang on to the brand trackers and see what measures most closely approximate the performance curves from your longitudinal studies to align metrics with an eye towards the future.

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